The results of Aajtak C Voter’s Mood of the Nation survey may not seem too shocking in the rest of the country, but in Maharashtra these results have surprised everyone. On one hand, the Modi magic is visible in the country, while on the other hand, in January 2023, the Lok Sabha elections are held, then in Maharashtra, this survey has surprised everyone by giving 34 seats to the Maha Vikas Aghadi i.e. Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction). Eknath Shinde absconded with 40 MLAs and 13 MPs from under Uddhav Thackeray’s nose and formed the government in Maharashtra with BJP, but still its effect is negligible. But despite all this BJP Shinde faction will not be able to win even 20 seats. Not only him, but many leaders of the opposition Congress, NCP are also unable to believe this. After all, what is the math of this…
In fact, ever since the BJP has been winning elections in the name of Modi, many things become clear if we look at the results of the Maharashtra elections and the percentage of votes each party got. In 2014, BJP and Shiv Sena won 23 and 18 seats respectively, securing 27.6% and 20.3% of the vote. While his ally party got one seat. NDA won 42 out of 48 seats by securing 51% vote share.
Congress NCP won 6 seats with 16.1% and 18% vote share. UPA’s vote share was 35%. But in the assembly elections held after a few months, all the parties contested separately. It is worth noting that despite this there was no significant difference in the vote share of all major parties. BJP remained the largest party with 27.8% vote share. Shiv Sena’s vote percentage decreased but it remained the second largest party with 19.35%. While Congress and NCP maintained their vote base by securing 17.95% and 17.24% respectively.
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This was the period when due to the Modi wave, there was a significant increase in BJP’s seats and vote share in the country and Maharashtra. But the same charisma continued in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as well. In 2019 again BJP and Shiv Sena came together, while Congress NCP contested together. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, once again BJP won 23 seats and Shiv Sena 18 seats, but BJP’s vote share was 27.84% as in 2014 and Shiv Sena’s 23%. Once again NDA won 41 seats with 51% vote share.
Whereas, like 2014, with 33% votes, Congress NCP and allied parties i.e. UPA won 6 seats. One thing is clearly visible that in spite of Modi’s charisma being at its peak, the vote share of anti-BJP UPA in Maharashtra is stable at 34% despite the popularity of Modi government increasing after the Balakot strike. While BJP’s 27/28% and Shiv Sena’s own 20% vote percentage was seen. Now let’s see this math in the new political equation.
Now the vote percentage of the three parties together with Shiv Sena, Congress, NCP becomes 54%, but after the huge split in Shiv Sena, according to C Voter India Today’s survey, if the Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2023, Uddhav Thackeray will at least Will be able to keep Shiv Sena’s vote up to 10%. Due to which the vote share of Maha Vikas Aghadi comprising Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena Uddhav faction can reach up to 44%, while BJP and Shinde faction can retain up to 37% votes. Because of this, it is being estimated that the Maha Vikas Aghadi can win up to 34 Lok Sabha seats.
Many times the arithmetic of numbers falls short in front of electoral arithmetic, due to which SP and BSP could not harm BJP as expected in Uttar Pradesh in 2019 despite coming together. The NDA in Maharashtra has a chance to rectify this math. If the Election Commission gives a decision in favor of the Shinde group or for some reason there is a rift in the Maha Vikas Aghadi regarding the distribution of seats, then it can be beneficial for the BJP. Also, even if Shiv Sena’s Uddhav faction could not show amazing results in the BMC elections to be held before the Lok Sabha, it can prove to be beneficial for the Shinde faction. But more than that, if Eknath Shinde himself can prove himself as the Chief Minister, then this math can change.
